Earlier this week (10/12/14), former Brazilian presidential candidate
Marina Silva of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) announced her support of Aécio
Neves da Cunha of the center-right Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB).
While this is not as extreme as the temporary alliance of Lula’s Workers’ Party
(PT) with Paulo Maluf’s Social Democratic Party (PDS) against the sudden
hegemony of the PMDB after the 1985 elections,1 it still seems
surprising to an outside observer that the socialist PSB would break with the
“leftist” PT and support the more conservative candidate, especially given that
Marina herself rose to political prominence as a member of the PT under then-president
Luis Inácio Lula da Silva. Ideologically,
Marina and her supporters would appear more aligned with current president and
candidate for re-election Dilma Rousseff than with challenger Aécio Neves.
At this point, it is impossible to predict accurately the winner of the
second round (run-off) election on October 26, 2014. According to a poll
released by the Instituto Vox Populi on Monday, 10/13/14, the two presidential
candidates are in a statistical tie (Dilma 51%, Aécio 49%), and on Wednesday,
10/15/14, both IBOPE and Datafolha had similar results (Aécio 51%, Dilma 49%).2
Moreover, there has been no clear trend throughout the campaign but rather
constant fluctuations. What has become increasingly clear is a growing
anti-Dilma – and to an extent anti-PT – sentiment among many politicians and
the electorate. Some people, such as novelist and journalist Lya Luft, feel
that it is simply time for a change, that there should not be a single-party
domination of political power but rather the plurality necessary in a democracy.3
Others are offended by the corruption scandals that have surfaced during the
dozen years in which the PT has controlled the presidency, especially given
that the party’s platform had long been one of opposition to corrupt status quo
government. This in no small part includes the Mensalão bribes and the issues
with Petrobras.4 Certainly, there also is a group whose political
aspirations lead it to seek a place in the sun by trying to cast out the
current power structure, but it seems to be more of a strange-bedfellows arrangement
that is developing among those against the re-election of Dilma and the
continuation of the PT in control of the government. It is not likely that such
disparate interests would be able to maintain an alliance government for an
extended length of time, but for the immediate future, Marina’s Brazilian Socialist
Party has seats reserved in the cabinet of President Aécio Neves da Cunha,
should that come to pass.
Notes:
1. Maluf orchestrated the election of ex-president Jânio Quadros of the
center-left PTB as mayor of São Paulo, defeating the PMDB candidate, Senator
(and future president) Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Essentially, Jânio was supported
by a short-lived anti-PMDB coalition that included the PT.
2. http://www.jb.com.br/eleicoes-2014/noticias/2014/10/14/vox-populi-dilma-tem-51-e-aecio-49/;
http://www.jb.com.br/eleicoes-2014/noticias/2014/10/15/ibope-aecio-tem-51-dos-votos-validos-e-dilma-49/
3. “Está na hora de
mudar: não digo isso por achar importante, pois está superado o conceito
estrito de direita ou de esquerda, mas porque democracia implica não haver
domínio de poder, de cargos, de ideologias e, sim, de alternância para que se
conceda espaço e oportunidade a todos.”
4. See, for example, http://latamperspectives.blogspot.com/2013/02/petrobras-and-pasadena-refinery.html
