Chavismo without Chávez II

What is surprising is not that Hugo Chávez’s chosen successor Nicolás Maduro has claimed victory in the special election necessitated by Chávez’s death, but rather that even with the full force of the Chavista political machine the National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner with a margin of only 1.5%. As can be expected in such circumstances, opposition candidate Henrique Capriles has not recognized the results, and has called for the ballot boxes to be opened and the ballots recounted. Few international observers doubt that the ultimate victor of this election will be Maduro, given that the President of the National Electoral Council, Tibisay Lucena, stated that the announced results favoring Maduro were “irreversible,” and given that, as observed by the University of Miami’s Bruce Bagley, “In the final analysis, it will be the Chavistas counting the votes” (L.A. Times, 04/14/13, A3). Regardless of the final outcome or the recount – if there is one – one comment repeated tonight by Capriles goes to the heart of the situation. Addressing his opponent, Capriles said, “The loser is you” (“El derrotado es usted”). Just last October, an ailing Hugo Chávez extended his 14-year reign winning re-election against Capriles by almost 10 percentage points. Tonight Maduro’s “mandate from the people” depended on a difference of less than 235,000 votes, out of 18.9 million registered voters. It remains to be seen how he will be able to consolidate his support more effectively than during this brief campaign. It will be surprising if he learns how to project the kind of charisma that Chávez leveraged into what might best be deemed a “constitutional coup de etat.”

Significantly, the top brass of the Venezuelan armed forces announced their support for the official results. The military’s press conference included General Wilmer Barrientos – the man charged with ensuring the transparency and fairness of the election process – celebrating Maduro’s win.